Russia has stepped up its threats against Ukraine and announced its intention to carry out “constant and systematic strikes” on Kyiv, particularly against military-industrial facilities.
In addition, Moscow urged foreign citizens and diplomatic personnel to leave Kyiv “as soon as possible.” These statements have caused concern at the UN, in the European Union and in a number of European countries.
Why Russia is again threatening strikes on Kyiv
As BBC notes, Russia’s threats themselves are not fundamentally new. Ukraine has been regularly subjected to Russian missile and drone attacks for several years. Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the overall level of security threats to Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities remains the same as in previous months and years.
However, the new factor is the Kremlin’s rhetoric, which Moscow is using to try to justify possible new attacks on Ukraine. According to BBC, this is linked to a recent incident in Starobilsk, Luhansk region.
Russia accused Ukraine of killing 21 students during a strike on Starobilsk in occupied territory. Kyiv, in turn, says the strike targeted a military facility.
BBC notes that Moscow is presenting the incident as an alleged deliberate attack on civilians and using it as a pretext for threats of retaliation.
The Kremlin is trying to control the war narrative
Military analyst Ivan Stupak believes Russia’s new rhetoric may be an attempt by the Kremlin to control the information narrative of the war.
According to him, amid economic problems and tensions within Russian society, the authorities may be amplifying the theme of “revenge” to explain new strikes on Ukraine and maintain public support.
Previously, Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities were rarely accompanied by such explanations. At the same time, Moscow has shown little visible remorse over civilian casualties in occupied territories and other parts of Ukraine.
Lack of success at the front and pressure on Ukraine’s allies
Andriy Kovalenko of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council believes Russia’s threats may have other reasons not directly linked to the strike on Starobilsk.
In his view, one reason is the lack of significant successes by the Russian army on the battlefield. Moscow may use threats against Kyiv as a tool of pressure not only on Ukraine, but also on its Western allies.
The call for foreign citizens and diplomats to leave Kyiv may be an attempt to create a sense of heightened danger and influence political support for Ukraine from Europe.
Russia is trying to distract attention from Ukraine’s strikes on its territory
Another possible reason for the new wave of threats, according to the expert, is an attempt to distract attention from Ukraine’s long-range strikes on Russian territory.
According to Kovalenko, Moscow is trying to shift the focus away from Ukraine’s ability to carry out long-range strikes and defend its own territory, including threats to Moscow. BBC notes that the war, now entering its fifth year, is still not developing in the way the Kremlin expected.
Experts point to growing pressure on Russia
Nigel Gould-Davies of the International Institute for Strategic Studies believes Russia is facing growing industrial and manpower constraints.
In his view, the Kremlin will soon have to decide whether it is ready for a harsher mobilization of the economy and society. Forcing people into the armed forces, the expert notes, could be extremely unpopular and create additional risks for stability inside Russia.
The threat to Kyiv remains high
Despite explanations of Moscow’s possible motives, the threat of new Russian strikes on Ukraine remains serious. During the latest massive attack, Russia, according to the publication, used at least one Oreshnik missile, which is difficult for air defense systems to intercept.
BBC concludes that Kyiv may face difficulties countering large-scale and repeated attacks if Russia does indeed intensify strikes on the Ukrainian capital.
The UN and EU reacted to Russia’s threats
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said he was deeply concerned by reports of Russia’s intention to carry out consecutive and systematic strikes on defense enterprises in Kyiv.
He stressed that the UN condemns attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure wherever they occur. According to Guterres, it is especially important now to prevent further escalation of the war, as this could push the prospects for peace even further away and prolong people’s suffering.
The European Union and several European countries summoned Russian diplomats after the new threats against Kyiv. Diplomatic démarches were carried out by Germany, Norway, the Netherlands and the EU itself.
The European Union called Moscow’s statements an unacceptable escalation, especially against the backdrop of calls for foreign citizens and diplomats to leave Kyiv.
Source: warecho.org